房产税改革会对经济产生冲击吗?——基于包含异质性家庭的DSGE框架分析

Dose the Property Tax Reform Exert Impacts on the Economy?—Based on an Analysis of DSGE Framework with Heterogeneous Household

房产税改革在经济新常态背景下面临"稳增长"与"促改革"的内在张力。文章拓展了Iacoviello和Neri(2010)的分析框架,构建了一个包含异质性家庭部门、生产部门和政府部门的多部门动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析房产税改革对宏观经济的影响。模拟结果表明,当实施免税面积与抵扣税负相结合的方案且房产税率为1.2%时,总产出下降0.38%,房地产投资下降4.71%,房价下降1.3%。房产税改革对宏观经济的负面影响被有效对冲。下一步推进房产税改革应遵循"稳""低""活"的原则。

Under the new normal background,promoting the property tax reform must fully consider the inherent tension of stabilizing growth and promoting reform. This paper develops the framework of Iacoviello and Neri（ 2010） and establishes a three-sector DSGE model containing heterogeneous families sector,production sector and government sector to simulate the impacts of the property taxreform on macro economy. The simulation results show that,during the exertion of the programs containing Tax-exempt areas and tax deduction,and meanwhile the tax rate is 1.2%,the GDP will decrease by 0.38%,the real estate investment will decrease by 4.71% and the housing price will decrease by 1.3%. The impacts of tax reform on macro-economy will be effectively offset. The next step of the property reform should follow the principles of keeping steady,lowering rates and maintaining flexibility.