地震异常ECRS分析方法在北京地区的应用和检验

Application and Test of ECRS Earthquake Anomaly Analysis Method in Beijing Area

ECRS(地震对应相关谱)方法是近年来得到关注的地震异常识别方法之一。应用ECRS方法,分析了北京地区单参数与多参数滑动极值平均相关度,通过算例分析与外推预测,并与实际地震发生情况进行对比,对此方法的有效性进行了初步的评价。研究结果表明:对M4级以上的目标震级,当考察时段为12个月时,b值、缺震等单参数相关度对北京地区地震前兆异常具有一定的识别能力;多参数地震对应相关谱较单参数可更好地识别北京地区地震前兆综合异常,其异常对应比例与地震对应比例分别为7/8、9/11,异常信度较高;以均值0.5倍标准差的高相关度作为异常阈值,可以较好的识别地震前兆综合异常,但一定程度上会受人为因素的影响。

ECRS （earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum）method is one of concerned recognition methods of seismic anomalies in recent years. This paper analyzes the single and muhi-parameter sliding extreme average relevancy spectrum of Beijing area by using ECRS method. The effectiveness of this method is evaluated preliminarily through the example analysis, extrapolation and comparing with the actual occurrence ofearthquake. The results show that for the target earthquake with M I〉4, when the inspection period is 12 months, single-parameter corresponding relevancy spectrum such as of b value, lack of earthquake has a certain ability to recognize seismic precursory anomaly of Beijing area; multi-parameter earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum can identify earthquakes comprehensive precursory anomalies better in Beijing area comparing with single-parameter. The anomalies corresponding proportion and earthquake corresponding proportion are 7/8 and 9/11 respectively with the high abnormal reliability; taking high probability of 0.5 times the standard deviation of the mean value as the anomaly threshold, it can identify earthquake precursory comprehensive anomaly better, but will be affected in a certain extent by human factors.