帆随风动、人随财走?--财政转移支付对人口流动的影响

Sails Go with Wind,Will People Go with Money?:The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Population Migration

本文基于全国第五次和第六次人口普查分县数据,研究了转移支付对跨地区人口流动的影响。我们使用空间断点回归设计来解决转移支付的内生性问题,结果表明,一个地区获得的转移支付越多,人口净流出规模越大。进一步研究发现,转移支付导致人口流出的重要机制是,转移支付减少了就业机会,扩大了地方行政管理支出规模和财政供养人员规模,对公共品提供的作用较为有限。本文认为,有必要进一步提升财政转移支付资金的使用效率。

Based on the fifth and sixth national censuses,we analyze the impact of intergovernmental transfers on population flow. We use a spatial regression of discontinuity design to solve the endogenous problem. The results show that the more transfer payments a region gets,the more population flows out. Further study shows that the important reasons for the population outflowing including that transfer payments not only are used to expand the expenses of the local administrative and the scale of fiscal personnel,but also pay limited effect on the supply of public goods and jobs. Therefore,we think that it is necessary to further improve the efficiency of fiscal transfer payments.