美国货币政策是全球发展中经济体外汇储备影响因素吗?

Does US Monetary Policy Have an Influence on Foreign Exchange Reserves of Developing Economies?

基于全球103个发展中经济体1980-2014年的面板数据,本文检验了美国货币政策与全球发展中经济体外汇储备之间的关系。实证结果显示:美国货币政策对全球发展中经济体外汇储备存在明显的溢出效应,联邦基金有效利率的上升将降低发展中经济体的外汇储备水平,反之将增加发展中经济体外汇储备水平。此外,研究结果显示,基于外汇储备需求理论出发的传统宏观因素、金融因素、汇率制度和资本开放程度对外汇储备也有较好的解释力度。

Based on the panel data of 103 developing economies during the period of 1980-2014,this paperinvestigatesthe relationshipbetween US monetary policy and foreign exchange reserves of developing economies. Empirical results show that： the increase of federal funds effective rate will reduce the level of foreign exchange reserves of developing economies; otherwise it will increase the level of foreign exchange reserves. Empirical results also show that traditional macrovariables,financial variables and country specific variables are significant determinant factors of developing economies＇ foreign exchange reserves.