棉花目标价格补贴政策与农户种植行为选择——基于新疆棉区的调研

Cotton Target Price Subsidy Policy and Peasants' Selection of Planting Behaviors——Based on Survey in Xinjiang Cotton Area

2014年国家棉花目标价格补贴政策在新疆试行,旨在保障棉农利益的前提下,发挥市场在资源配置中的作用,合理引导棉花生产。采用问卷调查法和Logistic回归分析法对南疆北疆植棉区158户棉农在目标价格补贴政策实施背景下棉花种植意愿进行调查分析,结果表明棉农家庭务农人数、植棉亩均成本、棉花亩均产量、植棉亩均收入以及目标价格预期对棉农的棉花种植意愿有显著影响。为了有效提高新疆棉区棉农生产积极性,促进棉花产业发展,应当加快棉花产业配套设施建设,科技助力棉花产业发展;稳定棉花补贴预期,建立补贴长效机制;建立非宜棉区退出机制,鼓励土地流转,发挥植棉规模效益。

The trial implementation of cotton target price policy was launched in Xinjiang Province in 2014,which aimed at exerting market function of resource allocation and guiding cotton planting reasonably on the premise of ensuring the interests of peasants. This paper uses questionnaire survey and Logistic regression analysis to analyze 158 households＇ planting will and planting choices of cotton in South and North Xinjiang. The results show that： the labor force engaged in agriculture of a peasant＇s family, the cost of cotton planting in per acre, the yield of cotton planting in per acre, the revenue of cotton planting in per acre and the expectation of target price have a significant influence on the planting will and and planting choices of cotton. In order to improve the enthusiasm of cotton planting and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang, we should accelerate the construction of supporting facilities for cotton industry, apply science and technology to improve development of cotton industry, stabilize the expectation of cotton subsidies and build a long-effect mechanism of cotton subsidies; establish a withdrawing mechanism in the less suitable area of cotton planting and encourage the transferring of cultivated land to exert the scale benefit of cotton planting.