基于聚类分析的广东省水产养殖自然灾害风险区划

Natural disaster risk division of aquaculture in Guangdong Province based on cluster analysis

为了分析广东省21个市水产养殖的风险水平,从单产波动水平、历史灾损度、脆弱性和抗灾减灾能力4个主导指标出发,建立了一套水产养殖自然灾害风险测度指标体系,并根据主导指标的量化值采用聚类分析对广东省水产养殖自然灾害风险进行区划。结果表明:高风险区主要位于粤东和粤西的阳江、湛江,中风险区只有深圳、江门和肇庆三市,低风险区主要位于粤北和粤中。最后根据研究结论提出了水产养殖自然灾害风险管理的对策建议。

In order to analyze the aquaculture risk level of 21 cities in Guangdong Province, a set of measurement index system for aquaculture natural disaster risk was established, based on the 4 dominant indexes including yield volatility levels, history damage degrees, vulnerability and disaster mitigation capacity. According to the quantitative values of dominant index,the risk of natural disasters in Guangdong Province was divided by cluster analysis. The results showed that the high risk area were mainly located in eastern Guangdong and Yangjiang and Zhanjiang in west of Guangdong Province, the medium risk area were located in Shenzhen,Jiangmen and Zhaoqing, and the low risk area were mainly located in northern and central of Guangdong Province. Finally,according to the conclusions, countermeasures and suggestions for risk management of natural disasters in aquaculture were put forward.