唐河县31年温度的变化特征及其对棉花生产的影响

Change Characteristics of Temperature and its Effect on Cotton production in Tanghe County during 1983-2013

为了促进唐河县优质棉花生产,采用线性回归分析法研究小尺度范围气候的变化规律及棉花生产对其变化的响应。结果表明:1983—2013年唐河县的年均气温呈显著升高趋势,增速为0.389℃/10a;但其增长存在较大的不平衡性。其中,1983—1998年气温升高迅速,增速达0.766℃/10a,而1999—2013年温度则几乎没有变化。从季节看,春季和夏季升温显著,秋季和冬季则不显著。1999—2013年,棉花产量呈显著增长趋势,温度每升高1℃,棉花增产151.68kg/hm2;其中,2003—2013年棉花产量随春季和夏季温度、7月均温、极端最高温和棉花生长季均温的增加而升高。可见,唐河县31年温度的变化较敏感,并且温度对棉花的增产作用在整体上较为显著,且不同时间段的温度变化及其对棉花的影响存在明显的时间变异性。

The climatic change regulation in small scale range and its effect on cotton production were studied by linear regression analysis to promote production of quality cotton in Tanghe County.Results：The annual average temperature presents an obvious increasing trend with a growth rate of 0.389℃/10 ain Tanghe County from 1983 to 2013but there is a greater unbalance in temperature growth.The annual temperature increases rapidly with a growth rate of 0.766℃/10 afrom 1983to 1998 but annual temperature has little change from 1999 to 2013.Temperature increases significantly in Spring and Summer but insignificantly in Autumn and Winter.The cotton yield shows an obvious rising trend from 1999 to 2013and cotton yield increased by 151.68kg/hm2 when the temperature increases 1℃.Cotton yield increases with temperature increase in Spring and Summer and increase of average temperature in July,extreme maximum temperature and average temperature during cotton growth period from 2003 to 2013.In conclusion,Annual average temperature is sensitive to climatic change during 1983-2013 and has the significant yield-increase effect on cotton overall.The temperature variation during different time period has obvious temporal variation for cotton yield.