货币政策冲击对农产品价格的影响

The Impacts of Monetary Shocks on Agricultural Prices

基于农产品价格超调假说,考察了货币政策冲击对中国农产品价格的影响机理及效应。理论上,货币政策冲击影响了农产品的投机性需求,导致农产品价格波动幅度大于农业生产资料价格。利用向量误差修正模型得到的实证结果,支持了理论分析的基本观点:短期内,货币政策对农产品价格的影响主要是经由需求渠道而非供给渠道,在货币冲击下农产品价格的波动幅度较大,并且波动的峰值超过了其新的均衡水平,即存在"超调"现象;但是,长期内货币政策对价格的影响是中性的,农产品价格最终趋于与农业生产资料价格相同的均衡水平。货币政策应盯住农产品的长期价格水平,管控农产品的投机性需求,以平抑农产品价格波动。

Based on the overshooting hypothesis of agricultural prices,the influence mechanism and results of monetary shocks on agricultural price in China are investigated. In theory,monetary policy affectsthe speculative demand for agricultural products,leading to the fluctuation of agricultural prices. Basedon the VEC model,the empirical results support the theoretical views. In the short run,the impacts ofmonetary policy on agricultural prices are mainly through demand channels rather than supply channels;under monetary shocks,agricultural prices fluctuate greatly and the peak value exceeds its new equilibrium level,which is called the phenomenon of “overshoot”. But monetary policy is neutral in the longrun,agricultural prices and agricultural production materials prices finally tend to the same equilibriumlevel. The policy implication in conclusion is that monetary policy should peg to the longterm price levelof agricultural products,and control the speculative demand of agricultural.