基于金融加速器效应的重庆房价波动研究

Research on the Volatility of Chongqing Housing Price Based on Financial Accelerator Effect

基于金融加速器效应对重庆房价波动进行研究。围绕金融市场、房地产市场和投资市场,分别构建模型以及Shapiro-Wilk检验,证明重庆市住房价格波动存在金融加速器效应。实证研究的结论显示:(1)重庆市住房市场金融加速器效应明显,住房的交易均价与金融机构贷款存在显著相关;(2)重庆市房价波动受房地产开发投资和重庆市固定投资影响明显;(3)重庆市房价波动受工资收入总额变量影响较大;(4)VAR模型进一步说明了在适应期预期条件下,居民当期储蓄的增加会推动房价上涨。

In recent years,although the housing restriction policy has been introduced,but the continued rise in real estate prices has become an indisputable fact,causing widespread concern in the community. We study the financial accelerator effect on housing price fluctuations of Chongqing,revolving around the financial market,the real estate market and investment market,using model and Shapiro-Wilk test to prove the existence of the financial accelerator effect of Chongqing city housing price fluctuation. Results show that：（ 1） The financial accelerator effect of Chongqing housing market is obvious,and the average transaction price of housing has significant correlation with the loan of financial institutions;（ 2） Chongqing house price fluctuation is obviously affected by the investment in real estate development and fixed investment in Chongqing;（ 3） The price fluctuation of Chongqing is affected by the total amount of wages;（ 4） VAR model further shows that under the existence of expected conditions in the adaptation period,the residents of the current savings will promote the increase of the housing prices.