基于云模型的水利现代化评价方法与应用

Evaluation and application of water conservancy modernization index system based on a cloud model

从防洪除涝减灾、水资源保障、水环境与河湖生态保护、农村水利保障、供排水工程、水管理服务以及水利发展保障7个方面建立了水利现代化水平评价指标体系,共27项指标,确定了各项指标的评价等级与标准,构建云模型对江苏省新沂市水利现代化水平进行了评价。结果表明,新沂市水利现代化水平在2015年现状的评价值分别为85.53(云模型)和84.56(集对分析),均处于基本现代化阶段,与实际情况相符;而2020年评价值为93.71(云模型)和91.38(集对分析),预测能达到全面现代化,与"十三五"规划目标相符,验证了云模型评价方法的有效性和适用性。

Water conservancy modernization（WCM） forms an important part of the national modernization. To make the evaluation of WCM be more scientific and reasonable,an evaluation index system consisting of seven sub systems and twenty seven indices is established,including flood control and waterlogged reduction,water resources guarantee,water environment and ecological protection,rural water project guarantee,urban drainage and supply,water management service and water conservancy development guarantee. A cloud model（CM）,which has both fuzziness and randomness is used for the evaluation. The CM determines the comprehensive evaluation index weight by using backward and forward cloud generator,and calculates the rank by condition cloudgenerator. The paper uses set pair analysis as a comparative analysis（SPA）. A case study is put forward with Xinyi City of Jiangsu province. The results show that,the evaluation values are 85. 53（CM） and84. 56（SPA） in 2015 and the level of WCM in Xinyi City is basic modernization,consistent with the actual situation. In 2020,the evaluation values are 93. 71（CM） and 91. 38（SPA）,both can achieve the level of comprehensive modernization,consistent with the 13 thFive-Year Plan. The effectiveness and applicability of the CM is verified.