巨灾情境下石油价格冲击的宏观经济动态效应研究——基于DSGE模型的数值分析

On the Dynamic Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Macro Economy under Disaster Environment——Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文构建一个包含石油价格因素的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,通过将石油消费分别引入家庭部门与厂商部门,研究石油价格、消费偏好及生产技术等外生变量对我国宏观经济及石油类消费品的动态影响。研究表明:(1)石油价格下降对经济增长具有一定的负效应;巨灾情境下的石油价格暴跌,其对宏观经济的负面作用极大。(2)石油价格下降能够在短期内提升家庭与厂商的石油消费量,对家庭非石油消费的影响相对较小,中长期内对三者的影响均不显著;石油价格暴跌对石油消费具有显著的正效应,对家庭非石油消费表现为负效应。(3)生产技术改善对经济增长具有正效应,同时提升家庭与厂商的总消费水平;巨灾情境下生产技术的大幅下降导致宏观经济的下滑速率较石油价格暴跌相对平缓,且使得石油总消费量也出现相对匀速的下降。(4)短期内石油消费受到石油价格的影响较大,而中长期内生产技术决定了石油消费的总体规模。

This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model containing oil price factor- to study the dynamic effects of oil price, consumer’s preferences,production technology and other variables have led to the macro economy and petroleum consumer goods through subdividing the oil consumption into the families＇ oil consumption and manufacturers1 oil consumption respectively. Research shows that： （1 ） The short-term decline o f oil price has negative effects on economic growth; However, oil prices collapse has great negative effect on the macro economy under disaster environment, especially the negative effects of enterprise output which is of significant sustainability; （2） A slight drop of oil prices can ascend families and manufacturers＇ oil consumption in the short term, and has the small impact on family non-oil consumption and little impact on the three aspects in the long term. Oil prices collapse has significant positive effect on oil consumption, and has the negative effects on the families1 non-oil consumption and significant sustainability on the three aspects; （3） The improvement of production technology has a positive effect on economic growth, and improve the total consumption of families and manufacturers at the same time. The sharp fall of production technology make the macroeconomic decline relatively slower than the oil prices collapse, which makes the total oil consumption decline relatively uniformly; （4） Based on the variance decomposition results, oil consumption is affected much more easier by oil pricethan other short-term factors, however, the production technology determines the scale of oil consumption in the long term.