基于监管视角的经济增长与信贷质量关系实证研究

Empirical Research on the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Credit Quality from the Perspective of Supervision

银行信贷行为具有显著的顺周期特征,"新常态"背景下我国经济发展减速,商业银行信用风险高发,经济增长和信贷质量二者关系呈现互抑特征。对宏观、微观和金融环境因素与银行信贷质量的相互影响进行研究,发现经济增长与信贷质量存在着长期稳定的均衡关系以及新常态下二者存在相互抑制关系等结论。

The credit behavior of banks is with a notable procyclical characteristic. China’s economy is experiencing the stage of slowdown under the MNew Normal1＇. Credit risk remains high, and the relation between economic growth and credit quality is characterized by mutual suppression. Based onthe study of the mutual effect between macro, micro and financial environments and the quality of credit, it comes to a conclusion that there exists a long-term and stable equilibrium between economic growth and credit quality, and also the two are mutually correlated with the promotion of ＂New Normal＂ as well.