三亚入境旅游需求影响因素研究——以韩国客源市场为例

Study on the Influencing Factors of Korean Inbound Tourism in Sanya

利用三亚主要客源国之一韩国2005-2013年数据,在实证分析的基础上,确定了三亚入境旅游市场的主要影响因素。采用一阶差分线性回归模型分析了时间序列数据,证实了三亚韩国入境旅游市场需求的主要影响因素有人均GNP、人均GNI、相对CPI、汇率、重大事件和突发事件等虚拟变量,其中人均GNP、相对CPI成正向变动,人均GNI、汇率和虚拟变量成反向变动。最后,针对三亚入境旅游需求影响因素分析提出了拓展三亚入境旅游的市场策略。

Based on previous studies,this paper studies the impact factor of inbound tourism demand in Sanya.In the premise of quantitative analysis of the main inbound tourist source countries in Sanya,the factors affecting the inbound tourism market in Sanya are determined.Using double logarithmic linear model to the time series data statistical analysis;confirm the factors affecting the demand for inbound tourism market in Sanya are per capita GNI,exchange rate,relative CPI,major events and unexpected events.Finally,based on the analysis of the factors affecting the inbound tourism demand in Sanya,this paper puts forward the strategy of developing the inbound tourism market in Sanya.