新形势下我国财政赤字影响效应研究——基于VECM模型分析

Research on the Effect of Fiscal Deficit in China under the New Situation——Based on VECM model

2016年我国经济将继续面临下行风险,同时将加大力度实施积极财政政策,尤其是将预算财政赤字规模提高到了历史新高。赤字政策对一国经济发展影响是不确定的,积极财政政策可以很好地解决有效需求不足问题,但在长期会给政府带来较大的财政压力。因此,我们将依据财政赤字的弥补方式,探讨影响我国财政赤字的因素。进一步通过向量误差修正模型VECM来实证分析我国财政赤字政策在长期以及短期范围内所产生的影响效应,并据此提出相应建议。

China′s economy will continue to face downside risks in 2016,while China will intensify the implementation of active fiscal policy with the highest budget deficit this year.It is uncertain that the impact of the active policy on our country＇s economic development.On the one hand,it can well solve the problem of insufficient effective demand.But in the long run it will bring great financial pressure to the government.Therefore,we will explore the factors that affect our budget deficit based on the way to make up for it.Furthermore,we will use the Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the impact of China′s fiscal deficit policy in the long run and short range,and then put forward the corresponding recommendations.