基于GTAP模型的中国和吉尔吉斯经济效应研究

On Economic Efficiency of China and Kirghizia on the Basis of GTAP Model

中国和吉尔吉斯斯坦毗邻,借助于WTO和上海合作组织两个平台,双方在经济贸易发展上有广阔的前景。自从共建"一带一路"的战略构想提出以来,两国的自由贸易区受到广泛关注,但对其经济效应研究却很少,本文利用GTAP模型定量测算了两国关税削减和降低技术性贸易壁垒所带来的经济效应变动。研究结果显示,中吉两国之间关税的削减对于双方的国内生产总值、福利水平、进出口贸易及各部门产出有着显著的正向经济效应,并且这种效应将随着技术性贸易壁垒的逐步降低而逐渐扩大。吉尔吉斯斯坦的经济发展也将得到极大促进。

China is in neighbor with Kirghizia and so the two countries have promising future in their economic and trade cooperation resorting to WTO and Shanghai Cooperation Organization （ SCO）. The two countries have paid close attention to their free trade since “ one belt one road” strategy was brought forward. The paper applies GTAP model to calculate the change of economic efficiency caused by the two countries5 subtractive tariff and decrease of technical trade barrier. Data shows that the subtractive tariff of China and Kirghizia has a positive effect on their GDP, farewell level, import and export trade and production, and this kind of positive effect will be enlarged with the decrease of technical trade barrier and the economic development in Kirghizia will be greatly promoted.