中国甘蔗生产发展趋势分析

Development trend of sugarcane production in China

基于2000/2001至2015/2016榨季中国甘蔗生产数据,分析了我国甘蔗生产发展趋势。结果表明,16年来,我国甘蔗生产处于快速发展态势,甘蔗种植面积不断扩大,单产明显提高;敏感性分析表明,甘蔗种植面积是造成中国甘蔗总产量出现较大波动的主要因素;比较优势分析表明,广西具有绝对的规模比较优势和综合比较优势,适合大力发展甘蔗产业,但单产水平有待进一步提高;云南、广东和海南也具有明显的甘蔗生产比较优势,应加强甘蔗产业发展;福建甘蔗面积不断缩小,比较优势处于劣势,应该根据实际需要调整甘蔗产业发展。

In this paper,development trend of sugarcane industry in China were analyzed based on sugarcane production during 2000/2001 and 2015/2016. A rapid growth has been seen in Chinese sugarcane production in the last 16 years,because of cane planting area expansion,which was the key factor leading to fluctuations of sugarcane production in China,as proved by the sensitivity analysis. Analysis of comparative advantage indicated that Guangxi had absolute scale advantage,and comprehensive advantage and was suitable for developing sugarcane industry,but it should be strengthened to improve unit production. Yunnan,Guangdong and Hainan had obvious comparative advantage as well,so more support to sugarcane industry should be provided. The sugarcane industry in Fujian should be adjusted accordingly,since the continuous decrease in cane planting area