人均公共卫生支出对居民消费的影响研究——基于面板门槛模型的分析

Analysis on the Impact of Per Capita Government Health Expenditure on Household Consumption:Based on the Analysis of the Panel Threshold Model

论文以1997-2015年中国省级平衡面板数据为基础,运用网格搜索突变点、Bootstrap仿真序贯检验等方法和具有多个门槛值效应的面板门槛模型做实证分析,研究中国人均公共卫生支出与居民消费之间是否存在非线性关系,并进一步检验这种关系是否存在地域差别。实证结果表明,一方面,人均公共卫生支出对居民消费存在显著的促进效应,且当人均公共卫生支出增加,该促进效应将增强;另一方面,人均公共卫生支出对居民消费的促进效果有着显著地区差异,呈现西部省份远强于东中部省份的特点。

Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2015, using the method of grid panel search mutation point, Bootstrap simulation and threshold panel model with multiple threshold effects , this paper researches the non-linear relationship between per capita government health expenditure and household consumption in china, and further examine whether there is regional difference in this relationship. We find that on the one hand, per capita government health expenditure has a significant role in promoting consumption, and with the gradual increase in per capita health expenditure, the effect will increase, on the other hand, the promoting effects are markedly different in different regions. It shows that the western region is far stronger than the central and eastern regions. In the end, China should continue to increase investment in medical and health care, espe- cially in the western region, and at the same time, China also should implement differential health input policies according to the threshold areas in each province.