农村居民信息消费与居民收入、公共投资的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证检验

Research on the Relationship Between the Information Consumption of Rural Residents,the Residents' Income and the Public Investment——An Empirical Test Based on VAR Model

本文运用VAR模型对我国农村居民信息消费与居民收入、公共投资之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,三者之间存在着较强的相关关系和长期均衡关系。从短期看,信息消费是公共投资的Granger原因,信息消费和公共投资是居民收入的Granger原因,而反向因果关系均不存在;从长期看,公共投资是信息消费与居民收入的Granger原因,信息消费与居民收入之间互为Granger原因。居民收入和公共投资对农村居民信息消费产生持续的正向促进作用,在中短期,公共投资的作用显得相对较小,在长期,公共投资的作用将增大;信息消费和公共投资对农村居民收入具有持续的正向促进作用,在中短期,信息消费和公共投资的促进作用显得相对较小,但在长期,信息消费将成为促进居民收入增加的决定性因素。

This paper analyzes the relationship residents＇ income and the public investment of rural between the information consumption of rural residents, the area empirically based on the VAR model. The results show that there is a strong correlation and long-term equilibrium relationship among three variables. In the short term, the information consumption is the Granger cause of the public investment, the information consumption and the public investment are Granger cause of the residentsj income, while both of two reverse causalities do not exist; In the long term, the public investment is the Granger cause of the information consumption and the residents＇ income, the information consumption and the residents＇ income is reciprocal Granger cause. Both of the residents＇ income and the public investment have a continued positive effect on promoting the information consumption of rural residents, although the effect of public investment is relatively small compared to residents＇ income in the middle and short term, it will increase in the long term. Both of the information consumption and the public investment have a continued positive effect on promoting the rural residents＇ income, although the effect of information consumption and the public investment are relatively small compared to residents＇ income itself in the middle and short term, the information consumption will become the decisive factor to promote the increase of rural residents income in the long term.