基于最大熵模型模拟气候变化下中国两个沼泽藓类属的潜在分布

Modeling potential distributions of two wetland moss genera in China under climate change based on a maximum-entropy(Maxent) model

皱蒴藓属(Aulacomnium)和寒藓属(Meesia)是北温带沼泽或湿原藓类属的代表.沼泽湿地对气候变暖较为敏感,对于维持区域水循环和水文功能具有重要影响.基于中国皱蒴藓属4种52个和寒藓属3种20个地理分布点及19个环境变量,利用最大熵模型和Arc GIS 10.2软件,分别预测两个属在中国的适生分布区以及未来气候情景下物种潜在地理分布的变化.结果显示:(1)皱蒴藓属主要分布在中国东北和西北部分地区以及西南部分高山地带;寒藓属主要分布在中国东北大部分地区和四川北部高原.(2)最暖季度平均气温、最干季度降雨量和最干月降雨量是影响皱蒴藓属在中国分布的主要气候因子;年降雨量、最干季度平均气温、温度季节性变动系数和最暖季度平均气温是影响寒藓属在中国分布的主要气候因子.(3)在未来(2061-2080年)气候情景下,皱蒴藓属分布面积将比现代气候下增加5.94%,而寒藓属分布面积将减少0.27%.结果表明气候变化对两个沼泽藓类属的影响不同,可为探讨气候变化下苔藓植物物种分布变化提供参考资料.

Aulacomnium and Meesia are two representatives of north temperate wetland moss genera. Mire ecosystems are vulnerable to climate warming and play an important role in the maintenance of regional hydrological cycles and functions. Using 52 occurrence records of four Aulacomnium species, 20 occurrence records of three Meesia species, and 19 bioclimatic variables, the present study employed both maximum entropy （Maxent） modeling and spatial analysis methods in ArcGIS 10.2 to predict the potential distributions of these two genera in China and the change in range size for each under future climate scenarios. The distribution of suitable habitat for Aulacomnium was located in parts of northeastern and northwestern China and some mountainous areas in southwestern China, whereas the distribution of suitable habitat for Meesia included large parts of northeastern China and some parts of the plateau in northern Sichuan Province. Among the 19 bioclimatic variables used, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest quarter, and precipitation of the driest month were the major factors influencing the distribution of Aulacomnium in China, whereas annual precipitation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were the major factors for Meesia. Considering the future （i.e., 2061–2080） climate scenario, the range of Aulacomnium was predicted to increase by 5.94%. On the contrary, the range of Meesia was predicted to decrease slightly by 0.27%. These results showed that the influence of climate change on these two wetland moss genera was different, which provides a basis for exploring alterations to the distribution of bryophyte species under climate change.