我国内外经济失衡影响因素及优化路径研究——基于因子分析法

Research of Influencing Factor of China's Economic Internal and External Imbalances: Based on Factor Analysis

内外结构失衡是长期制约我国经济健康可持续发展的"顽疾"。尽管诱致内外经济失衡的因素多元化,且其作用机制、施力方向、影响范围及强度各不相同,但基于一般影响机理,可将其类型化为发展阶段性因素、经济体制性因素与宏观政策性因素。运用因子分析方法,对三类因素影响我国经济内外失衡的状况进行了实证分析,结果表明,宏观政策性因子对我国内外经济失衡的贡献度最高。在未来的宏观政策选择上,为矫正经济失衡,有必要在法治规则框架下,通过"抓大放小、汲富保贫"来广开财源,并在严防财政风险基础上,深化实施有减有增的结构性减税降负政策,以及有扶有压、精准施力的结构性支出政策。

Economic internal and external imbalance has become important factors to restrict economy sustainable development in China.The paper made the factor analysis based on internal and external imbalances influence factors,and divided the factors into technological progress factor,economic system factor and macro-policy factor through contribution degree and mechanism of action.Among these factors,the macro-policy factor makes the highest contribution rate to China＇s economic imbalance,and is easiest to correction through the macro-policy reform.Based on compare the policy effects,we concluded that Fiscal policy is best,which provides a theoretical basis to optimize the fiscal policy to promote the balanced development of Chinese economy.