中国居民消费率的可比性调整--基于经验与统计分析的视角

China's Household Consumption Rate——A Statistical Analysis from a Comparative Perspective

相关理论和国际经验事实表明,消费是宏观经济中最平稳的变量。这反衬出改革开放以来中国居民消费率统计核算数据的持续大幅下降非比寻常。本文认为,统计核算体系的变化和调整影响了核算数据的可比性,是导致其大幅下降的主要原因。基于对核算体系的分析,选取综合方法对数据进行可比性调整:重新推算社会消费品零售总额,剔除居民消费核算方法变化带来的影响;推算城镇居民住房消费,剔除自有住房虚拟折旧低估带来的影响。调整后的数据表明,1978-2014年中国居民消费率水平总体稳定在45%-50%之间,不存在持续下降。在利用支持向量回归模型验证了调整后数据的合理性后,本文初步讨论了这一基本事实蕴含的若干理论和政策含义,为供给侧结构性改革提供了一定的数据支撑。

Theoretical and empirical facts show that consumption is the most stable macroeconomic variables. This indicates that the continued declining consumption rate of China is unusual. Analyzing statistical accounting system and related data of China,this paper argues that statistical adjustments and changes in accounting system underestimate household consumption rate,which leads to sharp decline. This paper adjusts consumption rate data,according to social total retail sales of consumer goods,eliminates the impact to consumption rate of the national accounting system change,and eliminates the under-estimation of house price. And the vector support regression method shows the adjusted data rationality.The adjusted data show,from 1978 to 2014,the household consumption rate of China remained stable between 45%-50%,there is no downward trend. Finally,this paper gets the implications.