流域内经济结构性调整对水环境质量的长短期效应分析

Analysis of short and long-term effect of economic structural adjustment on water environment in the basin

随着流域内工业化和城镇化的深入发展,流域水环境面临的形势十分严峻,太湖流域作为我国社会经济发展最快的地区之一,其水体质量不容乐观。为了实现流域内经济、社会和环境的协调发展,本文首先基于主成份分析法确定太湖流域水质综合污染指数,以此表征流域水环境质量。在此基础上,基于ARDL模型的边限协整检验方法,利用1991—2014年的太湖流域(江苏部分)产业结构调整、人口城乡流动和政府环境规制的相关数据,从经济结构性调整视角分析其对流域水环境质量的长短期效应。实证结果表明:产业结构调整对水环境质量的长短期弹性分别为79.522和-179.283,说明流域内第二产业的长期粗放式增长会导致水质恶化,而且其影响程度并不会随着时间而自动消退。而人口城乡结构变化对水环境质量的长短期弹性分别为67.578和309.411,说明流域内人口从农村流动到城市,短期会增加用水量,加剧水质恶化,而长期造成的负面影响则会相对逐渐减弱。至于政府在流域治理方面的规制行为,由于其长短期弹性分别为-21.705和19.687,说明政府治理行为短期并不会有效改善水体质量,其管制效果并非立竿见影,往往需要等待若干年才能有初步成效,而且相比产业结构和人口城乡结构对流域水环境质量的影响程度,政府环境规制对水质的影响力度略显不足。最后基于实证分析结果,本文提出了促进改善流域水环境质量的若干政策建议,包括:优化第一产业和大力发展第三产业,促进产业结构优化调整;加大城市环境保护宣传力度,普及节水意识和管制排污行为,并扶植农业发展,实现城乡人口数量的合理流动;促进研发一些高新排污设备,继续加大政府在治理污水方面的投资,强化政府的环境规制行为等。

With the further development of industrialization and urbanization in the basin,water environment in the river basin turns to be worse.Taihu basin is one of the areas with fastest social and economic development in China,and its water quality gets worse.In order to achieve the coordinated development between economy,society and environment in the basin,this paper determines the comprehensive pollution index of water quality in Taihu basin based on the principal component analysis method.And then it analyzes the short and long-term effect of economic structural adjustment on water environment in the basin,using the data of Jiangsu ＇s industrial structure adjustment,population structure between urban and rural areas and government environmental regulation from 1991 to 2014 based on ARDL bounds test approach.The empirical results show that the short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of the industrial structure adjustment to the water environment quality are-179.283 and 79.522 respectively,which indicates that secondary industry will deteriorate water quality in the long term,and its influence does not automatically fade over times.The short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of urban and rural structural changes to water environment quality are 309.411 and 67.578 respectively,which means that the flow of population from rural to urban areas will increase water consumption in the short-term,and it will result in water quality deterioration,but its negative impact will be weakened in the long-term.The short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of government regulation behavior are 19.687 and-21.705 respectively,indicating that it will not improve the water quality effectively in the short term and often needs to wait for several years to get preliminary results.And compared to the effect of industrial and population structure on the water quality,its impact is slightly insufficient.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions based on the empirical analysis： optimizing the primary industry and developing the tertiary industry vigorously to promote the optimization of industrial structure; increasing the propaganda of environmental protection,popularizing water conservation awareness,controlling the sewage discharge behavior,and fostering agricultural development to achieve a reasonable population flow from rural to urban areas; promoting the development of some high-tech sewage equipment and increasing continuously government investment in sewage treatment to strengthen the government＇s environmental regulatory behavior.