双控行动下流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型

Modeling for multi-layer hierarchical decision-making of initial water rights allocation in the river basin with water resources dual control action

以流域初始水权配置实践为导向,参考现有水权按照"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构进行初始配置的思路,在用水总量和用水强度控制的制度约束下,建立双控行动下流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型,以模拟各个层面水权相关利益主体之间的民主协商及其上级层面行政仲裁过程,实现"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的水权分配,充分兼顾分水的公平性与效率性,优化流域社会经济综合用水效益。在此基础上,提出多层递阶决策模型的迭代算法,对流域初始水权分配模型进行求解。并结合流域初始水权配置实践,验证多层递阶决策模型的可行性。研究方法的创新性体现为:一方面,构建的"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的目标函数,有效保障了流域整体的国内生产总值最大化,体现了双控行动下流域分水的经济效益性。同时,有效保障了流域内各省区之间、各市区分水的协调满意度最大化,体现了用水总量控制约束下流域分水的社会公平性;另一方面,构建的"流域-省区-市区-行业"层级结构的约束条件,有效保障了各省区、各市区的配水比例与社会经济发展综合指数之间的匹配关系,提高了各省区之间、各市区之间的耦合协同发展效度,有效保障了双控行动下市区内各行业的用水目标达到预期的目标值,充分体现了流域内各省区、省区内各市区的经济社会发展需求以及市区内各行业的发展用水需求。从大凌河流域初始水权配置实践的多层递阶决策结果来看,流域社会经济综合效益的满意度达到0.993 4。其中内蒙古、辽宁、河北的水权分配比例分别为4.939%、93.731%、1.330%。与水利部试点方案进行对比分析可知,大凌河流域初始水权分配的多层递阶决策模型结果与水利部试点方案相吻合。

Taken the practice of initial water rights allocation in the river basin as reference,combined with the hierarchy of ‘basinprovince-city-industry＇,under the system constraint of controlling total amount and the intensity of water use,multi-layer hierarchical decision-making model of initial water rights allocation in the river basin is given to simulate the process of the democratic consultation among related stakeholders of water rights＇ demanders in different hierarchy and administrative arbitration of water rights＇ supplier at the higher level,to realize water right allocation of ‘basin-province-city-industry ＇ with fairness and efficiency,and optimize the comprehensive benefits of socio-economy in the river basin.Then,the iterative algorithm is given based on multi-layer hierarchical decision-making model to solve the model of allocating initial water rights in the river basin and verify the effectiveness of the model in Daling River basin,combined with the practice of allocating initial water rights.The innovation of the method embodied two aspects.First,the objective functions of ‘basin-province-city-industry＇effectively maximize the gross domestic product（ GDP） in the whole river basin,and embody economic efficiency in the river basin under double control action.At the same time,the objective functions effectively maximize the coordinated satisfaction degree among provinces,cities in the river basin,and reflect social fairness of under the restriction of controlling water-using total amount.Second,the constraint conditions of‘basin-province-city-industry＇are given,to effectively ensure the matching relation between water rights distribution proportion and social-economy development index,improve the coupling coordinated development validity,effectively reach expected water-using target among industries,and embody social-economy development demand of‘basin-province＇level,‘province-city＇level and water use demand of‘city-industry＇level.According to the multi-layer hierarchical decision-making results of initial water rights allocation practice in Daling River basin,the comprehensive satisfaction degree of social-economy benefit reaches 0.993 4.Water rights distribution proportions of Inner Mongolia,Liaoning and Hebei are 4.939%,93.731% and 1.330%.Compared with water rights allocation results of the pilot program of Ministry of Water Resources,the results of multi-layer hierarchical decision-making model is in conformity with the pilot program of Ministry of Water Resources.