我国流动老年人口居留意愿及其影响因素分析

The Analysis of the Status of China's Floating Elderly Population and It's Influencing Factors

随着我国人口老龄化进程的不断发展以及人口迁移流动规模的日益增加,流动人口中老年人口的比重也越来越大。国家卫生和计划生育委员会发布的《中国流动人口发展报告2015》显示,流动老年人口的规模不断增长,老年人口发生迁移流动现象已经成为常态。流动人口在享受基本公共服务均等化的过程中,公共卫生服务是最基本、最重要的方面之一,而流动老年人口由于年龄因素,身体健康状况更加备受关注。如何通过新型农村合作医疗等保险方式使老年人享受异地基本公共卫生服务是流动老年人口最关心的问题之一。本文利用2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从个体特征、流动特征和社会经济特征三个层面对我国流动老年人口居留意愿进行描述分析,采用逐步回归方法研究相关因素对流动老年人居留意愿所产生的影响。研究认为个体特征中性别、年龄、受教育程度等因素对流动老年人口居留意愿均有影响;从流动特征的维度来看,流入区域、流动范围、流入时长与流动原因四个变量均通过了显著性检验,均对流动劳动年龄人口的居留意愿产生了显著影响;社会经济因素中,除了再就业变量以外,其他变量的全部类别或部分类别均通过了显著性检验,为进一步完善我国流动老年人口基本公共服务和促进社会融合提供科学依据。

With the continuous development of China’s aging population and the increasing scale of floating population,the proportion of elderly population in floating population is also increasing.According to theChina Floating Population Development Report 2015released by the National Health and Family Planning Commission,the size of the floating elderly population is growing and the migration movement of the elderly population has become the norm.Public health service is one of the most important and basic aspect in the process of floating population enjoying equal basic public services,and the floating elderly population have caused more attention for their age and physical health.How to achieve the goal of public health services in different places through new rural cooperative medical insurance has been the most important problem for the floating elderly population.Based on the dynamic data of the floating population in 2015,this paper describes the current situation of the willingness to live of floating elderly population in China from three aspects：individual characteristics,mobility characteristics and socioeconomic characteristics,then this article through stepwise regression to study the impact of relevant factors on the willingness to live of the floating elderly population.Here come the following conclusions：Those factors like age,gender and educational level have a prominent impact on the willingness to live of floating elderly population from individual characteristics;Population inflow region,flow range,flow time and the reason have passed the significance test from mobility characteristics and they have a significant effect on the willingness to live of the floating working age population;All the socioeconomic characteristics have passed significance test except for the re-employment.Finally this paper provide the scientific basis for completing the basic public service and improving the social integration of the floating elderly population in our country by these research results.