我国失能老人数量及其结构的定量预测分析

Quantitative Forecast Analysis of the Quantity and Structure of Disability Old in China

现阶段我国人口老龄化发展迅速导致失能老人的基数巨大,他们的日常生活需要有人照料,借助外部护理服务来弥补自身失去的生理机能,这就需要大量的社会照料资源。由于我国家庭规模小型化,老年人长期护理成本居高不下,养老机构发展滞后等因素造成老年人护理服务供给不足,给我国社会保障体系带来严峻的考验。适时掌握我国失能老人数量,测算未来我国分城乡失能老人数量的变化和发展趋势,为我国建立老年长期护理保险制度提供需求、成本与供给预算的依据。本文从分析我国失能老人数量及基本状况入手,进而测算出未来我国分城乡失能老人数量的变化和发展趋势。据测算2015年我国60岁及以上失能人口约为1 563万人,其中生活完全不能自理老人约330万人。2054年我国失能老人总量将达到峰值约4 300万人,其中生活完全不能自理老人约1 600万。失能老人占总人口的比重将从现阶段的1.15%上升到2054年的3.1%,2054年之后将维持在这一水平上。我国应该尽快建立健全老年长期护理保险制度,建立失能评估机构以及专门护理机构、日间照料机构和居家护理服务机构,失能老人长期照料服务体系需要较多的人力资源投入。

At the present stage of China＇s aging population leads to the rapid development of the disabled elderly huge base,their activities of daily living and need someone to take care of,with the help of external care services to make up for lost their physiological function,which requires a large amount of social care resources. Due to the small family size in China,the long-term nursing cost of the elderly is high,and the lagging development of the pension institutions will cause insufficient supply of nursing services for the elderly. This will surely bring severe test to our social security system. Timely grasp of China＇s disabled elderly population,and estimates the future of China＇s urban and rural disabled elderly population changes and trends,will become the main basis to explore the establishment of long-term care for the elderly insurance system in our country,the cost of demand and supply. This paper starts with the analysis of the quantity and the basic situation of the disabled elderly in China,and then calculates the change and development trend of the number of disabled elderly people in urban and rural areas in the future. According to my calculations,in 2015,China＇s disabled population aged 60 and above is currently about 15 million 630 thousand people,of whom life can not take care of themselves,the elderly about 3 million 300 thousand people. In2054,the total amount of disabled elderly people in China will reach a peak value of about 43 million people,among whom the total amount of life can not be taken care of by themselves,and about 16 million of the elderly will be able to take care of themselves. The proportion of the disabled elderly population in China will rise from 1.15% at the present stage to 3.1% in 2054,and it will be maintained at this level after 2054.The quantitative analysis of this paper can provide an important basis for establishing the long-term care insurance system,demand,cost and supply for the elderly in china. Finally,the author puts forward that our country should establish and perfect the long-term care insurance system;the establishment of disability assessment agencies and special care facilities,day care institutions and home care services;long-term care of disabled elderly service system needs more human resource investment policies.