新常态下浙江潜在经济增长率的测算与分析——基于2005～2015年面板数据

Research on the Calculation and Analysis of Zhejiang Province's Potential Economic Growth Rate in the New Normal——Based on the Panel Data from 2005 to 2015

本文以2005~2015年浙江省市域面板数据为样本,依据劳动增强型的结构时变弹性模型,测算浙江潜在的经济增长率。研究结果发现,浙江人力资本产出弹性明显低于资本存量和劳动力产出弹性,三者变化的幅度不明显;浙江东北部地区的劳动力和人力资本产出弹性高于西南部地区,西南部地区的资本存量产出弹性日渐高于东北部地区;浙江实际经济增长率总体呈现波动下滑态势,增速变动不仅受潜在经济增速变动等内在因素影响,也受需求管理等外在因素影响。最后,从教育体制改革、需求管理优化和区域发展协同等方面提出相关的政策启示。

Using the panel data of cities in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2015 as the research sample,this paper calculates the potential economic growth rate of Zhejiang Province in detail according to the time varying elastic model of the structure of labor enhancement. It is found that Zhejiang＇s human capital output elasticity is significantly lower than that of capital stock and labor,and the output elasticity which varies among them has no significant difference. The output elasticity of labor and human capital in the northeast of Zhejiang is higher than that in the southwest. However,the output elasticity of capital stock in the southwest is higher than that in the northeast. In recent years,Zhejiang＇s real economic growth rate shows a trend of fluctuating slowdown. It is not only affected by the internal factors such as the potential economic growth rate changes,but also by external factors such as demand management. This paper also puts forward some related policy implications in aspects of educational system reform,demand management optimization and regional development coordination.