陕西省土地利用碳排放安全评价及预测研究

Evaluation and Prediction of Carbon Emissions on Land Uses in Shaanxi

从土地利用碳排放安全的内涵出发,构建基于压力-响应模型的陕西省土地利用碳排放安全评价指标体系,分析陕西省11个地级市土地利用碳排放安全的时空分异特征,并应用改进的新陈代谢无偏GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果表明:(1)2005-2014年,陕西省土地利用碳排放安全指数先曲折上升后波动下降,2010年达到最安全状态;(2)陕西省土地利用碳排放安全与自然地理分区呈耦合关系,陕南安全水平最高,关中次之,陕北最低,各地级市安全状况存在一定的空间集聚效应;(3)陕西省大部分地级市处于土地利用碳排放临界安全或不安全状态,压力系统恶化的同时,响应系统好转;(4)2015-2025年,陕西省土地利用碳排放安全状态持续弱化,各地级市未来土地利用碳排放安全均处于临界安全或不安全状态,安全状况不容乐观。应该在认清本区域土地利用碳排放安全情况的前提下,从相对敏感的指标入手采取针对性的碳减排措施。

For environmental security,any extended land use may cause increases in carbon emissions and raise concerns.To provide a guidance for the sustainable future regional development,the stress-response model was applied to firstly establish an indexing system for analyzing the spatial and temporal carbon emissions associated with the land uses in Shaanxi.In the end,strategies to reduce air pollution could be made available for the province.The improved unbiased metabolism-GM（1,1）model was used to project the situation for 2015 to 2025.The results showed that（1） from 2005 to 2015,the carbon emission security index increased at first,and then decreased,with the best state appeared in 2010;（2）the index was regional dependent,i.e.,the highest in the southern Shaanxi followed by the central and the northern region a spatial clustering among the prefectures was evident;（3）most prefectures in the province faced a borderline or critical level on the security index challenged by various stress factors,but the response system seemed significantly improved;and,（4）the status from 2015 to 2025 was expected to continuously deteriorate as most prefectures remain in the critical or unsafe state with respect of carbon emission.It seemed imperative that appropriate measures be adopted starting from the relatively sensitive issues to safeguard the environment from serious carbon emissions in the province.