摘要
以五华县19 a(1995—2013年)夏季(4—9月)逐日降水资料为研究对象,分析五华县年小时极端降水量变化趋势可得:从1995—2013年,五华县的小时极端降水量呈上升趋势,最大值出现在2010年,为103.5 mm/h。分别用耿贝尔(Gumbel)极值分布和广义(GEV)极值分布拟合该地降水极值,进而对两者的拟合效果进行比较,结果表明GEV的拟合效果要优于Gumbel。
The research s tatus, development trend and commonly used extreme value model and extreme quantile of short - termheavy rainfall at home and abroad are summarized. In this p a p e r,the five - September,the trend of extreme precipitation in Wuhua County is analyzed. From 1995 to 2013, the extreme precipitation of Wuhua County shows an increasing trend,and the maximum appeared in 2010,is 103. 5 mm / h. The results show that the fitting effect of GEVi better than that of Gumbel. The results showthat the fitting effect of GEV i better than that of Gumbel. The results show that the fitting Gumbel.
出处
《广东水利水电》
2017年第10期17-20,共4页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
关键词
短时强降水
耿贝尔极值分布
广义极值分布
short - term heavy rainfall ＋ Gumbel extreme distribution ＋ generalized extreme value distribution
