黄河流域最小保有灌溉需水量预测

Minimum Irrigation Water Requirement for Food Security in the Yellow River Basin

从粮食安全角度提出了最小保有灌溉需水量的概念及预测方法,建立了区域灌溉需水量对干旱的响应关系,预测了黄河流域及流域外引黄地区2020年不同干旱条件下的最小保有灌溉需水量。结果表明:黄河流域及流域外引黄地区最小保有灌溉面积为371.3万hm^2,占全部有效灌溉面积的42.3%;不同干旱等级的最小保有灌溉需水量为187.0亿~239.0亿m^3;随着干旱等级由轻旱到特旱,最小保有灌溉需水量分别较无旱情况增大5%、11%、19%和28%。

The concept and forecasting method of the minimum irrigation water requirement were put forward from the perspective of food security,the response relation between irrigation water requirement and drought was established and the minimum irrigation water requirement for 2020 under the different drought conditions in the Yellow River basin and its downstream irrigated areas were forecasted. The results show that the minimum irrigation area in the Yellow River basin and its downstream irrigated areas is 3.713 million hm^2,accounting for 42.3% of the total effective irrigation area. The minimum irrigation requirement in different dry years is 18.7 billion-23.9 billion m^3. The minimum irrigation water requirement increases by 5%,11%,19% and 28% respectively with the drought level increasing.