小浪底水库分期运用防洪风险多方案对比分析

Risk Analysis for Flood Control Operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir with Seasonal Flood-Limited Water Levels

通过对小浪底水库分期运用实现洪水资源化,可缓解黄河中下游水资源不足的局面。为决策最优分期运用方案,需要在考虑综合效益的基础上,对比分析小浪底水库分期运用不同方案的防洪风险。以正常运用期的小浪底水库为研究对象,根据多种方法识别的汛期分期点结果,拟定小浪底水库分期防洪运用方案;在此基础上,采用频率相应和Coupla函数相结合的方法,构建防洪风险指标,对比分析不同方案的防洪风险。计算结果表明,分期运用以后的实际防洪标准有所降低,且分期数越多,防洪标准降低越多。采用的方法可以更直接简便地分析小浪底水库分期运用的防洪风险程度。

The Xiaolangdi Reservoir is an irreplaceable reservoir for water resources allocation in the middle and lower Yellow River,and seasonal flood control operation of the reservoir can diminish the water resources shortage. To support the obtaining of the comparatively optimal seasonal flood control operation scheme,risk analysis for schemes is necessary besides the comprehensive benefits comparison. In this research,taking the Xiaolangdi Reservoir during the normal period as case study,based on flood season segmentation results of the middle and lower Yellow River via multi-methods,the flood control operation schemes of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir were presented firstly; furtherly,using the Coincident Frequency method mixed with Coupla function,the flood control risk index was developed and calculated. The results show that,flood control risk of seasonal operation is higher than that of non-seasonal,and increases while seasons amount increasing. The method developed can be used to analyze flood control risk conveniently and provide technical support for seasonal operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir.