影子银行、信用创造与货币政策调控

Shadow Banking, Credit Creation and Monetary Policy Regulation and Control

影子银行在为实体经济融资提供便利、为居民投资拓宽渠道的同时,也对我国货币政策调控和金融体系稳定产生了极大影响。本文在分析影子银行运行机理的基础上,运用VAR模型及方差分解方法对影子银行发展影响我国货币政策调控进行了实证研究。结论如下:影子银行发展对我国的货币政策目标、工具、传导途径以及运行环境均产生重要影响;与经济增长、物价稳定、货币供应量之间存在较为显著的相关关系,对通货膨胀会产生较长时间的正向影响,短期内对经济增长有提振作用但长期影响方向不确定,短期内对货币供应量会产生负向影响但长期影响较小。

The development of the shadow banking has attracted extensive attention from all walks of life. It provides the convenience for the real economy financing and broadens the channels for residents' investment. And at the same time, it has also had the enormous influence on China' s monetary policy regulation and control and financial system stability. Based on the analysis of the operation mechanism of the shadow banking, the paper uses VAR model and variance decomposition method to conduct an empirical research on the influence of the development of the shadow banking on the monetary policy regulation and control in China. The conclusion is as follows. The development of shadow banking has an important influence on the monetary policy objectives, tools, transmission channels and operating environment of China. It has a significant correlation with the economic growth, price stability and monetary supply, and places a positive effect on the inflation for a long time. In the short term, it boosts the economic growth, but the long-term impact on the economic growth is not sure. And in the short term, it has a negative impact on the monetary supply, while the long-term effect is small.