基于多维度的城市饱和负荷预测方法研究

Urban Saturation Load Forecasting Method Research Based on Multi Dimension

城市的饱和负荷是城市发展过程中各种因素的结果,研究城市的饱和负荷对确定电网的最终建设规模具有重要影响。针对城市饱和负荷预测的问题,提出了基于多维度的城市饱和负荷预测方法。首先,分析影响城市电力负荷的主要因素,建立了以经济、人口指标为影响因素的城市饱和负荷预测指标;其次,以多元回归分析理论为基础构造了以影响因素为自变量、用电需求为因变量的函数,并建立了多元二项式回归模型;最后,基于多元回归理论和Logistic曲线模型预测了城市电力负荷的发展情况,并通过对某市的案例分析,证明该方法的有效性、准确性和可行性,为未来城市饱和负荷预测的研究提供理论参考。

The saturated load of city is the result of various factors in the process of urban development. It is of great significance to study the city saturation load to determine the final construction scale of the power grid.Aiming at the problem of urban saturation load forecasting,this paper put forward a method based on multi dimension. First of all,the main factors influencing city electric power load was analyzed and the economic and demographic indicators for the influencing factors of city saturation load forecasting index was established. Secondly,the demand for electricity was due to the number of function variables as the basis,and multivariate binomial regression model was established to construct the theory of multiple regression analysis on the influencing factors as independent variables. Finally,the development situation of city electric power load was forecast based on the multiple regression theory and Logistic curve model. Through a case analysis,the validity,accuracy and feasibility of the method were proved. The method could provide a theoretical reference for the future research on the city saturation load forecasting.