2017年上半年中国猪肉市场分析及未来展望

China's Pork Market in the First Half of 2017 and Its Future Prospect

分析了2017年上半年中国猪肉生产、供应、消费和贸易情况,总结归纳了生猪产品市场价格走势,并对下半年猪肉市场进行了展望。2017年上半年,中国猪肉市场供需先紧后松,猪肉价格在春节过后连续4个月下跌,6月底呈止跌回升迹象,生猪产品进口保持高位;猪粮比价自3月起持续下跌,生猪养殖盈利空间不断缩小,趋于行业合理利润。同时,尽管能繁母猪存栏持续下降,但受繁殖效率提高影响,生猪产能总体处于恢复状态。2017年下半年生猪存栏量将会温和增加,猪肉进口将会下降,猪价回升空间有限。

This paper analyzed China＇s pork market in the first half of 2017 from the aspects of production,supply,consumption and trade,summarized the market price trend of pig products,and made a prospect of the pork market in the second half of 2017.In the first half of 2017,the supply and demand of China＇s pork market was tight first and then loose.Pork price fell for four months consecutively after the Spring Festival,and turned up at the end of June.Imports of pig products remained high level.The profit margin of pig-breeding continued decreasing as pig-grain price ratio kept shrinking since March,and the industry profit was beginning to be reasonable.At the same time,although the livestock on hand of reproductive sow continued declining,the pig production capacity was in general recovery trend affected by the increased reproduction efficiency.In the second half of 2017,the inventory of live pig will increase moderately,the pork imports will decline,and there is limited space for the pig price recovery.