粮食生产数量安全阈值研究及展望

Study on the Early Warning Threshold of Grain Production Quantity Safety and Its Outlook

从粮食生产、消费、价格和供需平衡的角度,设立粮食产量增长率、粮食自给率、玉米自给率、大米自给率、小麦自给率、粮食实际价格指数和粮食消费波动系数等7个指标,组成粮食生产数量安全评价指标体系。利用综合指标的警度对中国历史各年综合警情进行分析得出,1984—2015年,有无警年份21个、轻警年份4个、中警年份4个、重警年份3个。最后,利用指标体系,对2020年和2025年的综合警情进行了展望,得出了无警的结论 。

From the perspectives of grain production,consumption,price,balance of supply and demand,seven indicators were set up,such as the grain output growth rate,food self-sufficiency rate,maize self-sufficiency rate,rice self-sufficiency rate,wheat self-sufficiency rate,the actual price index and consumption fluctuation coefficient of grain,which formed the quantity safety evaluation index system of grain production.Using the alarm degree of comprehensive indicators,the comprehensive alarm of historical years in China were analyzed.The results showed that there were 21 years of no alarm,4 years of mild alarm,4 years of moderate alarm and 3 years of serious alarm from1984 to 2015.Finally,the comprehensive alarm in 2020 and2025 were forecasted by the index system,the conclusion was drawn that there was no alarm.