基于VARX模型的中国居民食物消费结构预测

Forecast of China Residents' Food Consumption Structure Based on VARX Model

以联合国粮食及农业组织食物平衡表数据为依据,在分析食物消费结构影响因素的基础上,构建了带有外生变量能够反映食物类别之间内在联系的VARX模型,预测了2020年中国居民人均食物消费结构及消费量:谷类155.98 kg,薯类35.17 kg,豆类1.38 kg,植物油11.73 kg,水果95.29 kg,蔬菜495.73 kg,肉77.10 kg,蛋27.88 kg,奶44.78 kg,水产品10.09 kg。与《2016中国居民膳食指南》数据比较发现,到2020年中国居民膳食结构尚不合理,存在明显的饮食不均、食物浪费与热量摄入过高等问题。

Based on the data of food balance sheet and the influence factors analysis of food consumption structure,the authors constructed a VARX model with exogenous variable,which could reflex the internal relationship between food categories.And then used this model to forecast China＇s residents＇ food consumption structure and quantity per capita：155.98 kilograms of cereal,35.17 kilograms of tubers,1.38 kilograms of beans,11.73 kilograms of vegetable oil,95.29 kilograms of fruit,495.73 kilograms of vegetable,77.10 kilograms of meat,27.88 kilograms of egg,44.78 kilograms of milk,10.09 kilograms of aquatic products.In contrast with the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents（2016）,the authors found that Chinese residents＇ dietary structure would be unreasonable before 2020,and there would exist some obvious problems such as imbalanced diet,food wastage and intake of high calorie.