不同类型建设用地扩张的时序及空间特征——加速失效模型在天津市静海区的应用

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Construction Land Expansion: Application of Accelerate Failure Time Survival Model in Jinghai District, Tianjin City

研究目的:分析城市扩展中交通用地、商住用地和工业用地扩张的时序特征、空间关系以及扩张时点的影响因素。研究方法:农地—建设用地转换最优时机理论;加速失效模型。研究结果:(1)不同类型建设用地在扩张过程中具有相互关联的时序和空间特征;(2)静海区交通用地引导了其他建设用地扩张的方向,而不同级别交通用地由于对建设用地和农用地影响的差异,加快或延缓了建设用地扩张的时机;(3)商住和工业用地在200—400 m范围内相互集聚,且商住用地产生的集聚效应强于工业用地。研究结论:细化建设用地类型以分析城市扩张的特征和机制,有助于城市扩展区的布局优化和集约发展。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics as well as interaction rule of construction land in urban expansion. GIS tools, land conversion timing theory and accelerate failure time survival model are used in the research. The results show that characteristics of construction land expansion vary according to specific land use types. And accelerate failure time survival model could clarify the expansion and impact regulation of traffic land, industrial land, commercial land and residential land. In Jinghai district, traffic land leads the direction of construction land expansion and can accelerate or postpone the land expansion since different classes of traffic land have various degrees of impacts on construction land or agricultural land. Meanwhile, the industrial land presented stronger expansion effects than commercial and residential land in 2006-2014. Industrial, commercial and residential land have agglomeration effect in the extent of 200-400 m, but commercial and residential land can more significantly promote agglomeration than industrial land. In conclusion, we argue that classifying construction land in the research on urban expansion mechanism is necessary to optimize land use allocation in suburbs. Since local government controls the construction land expansion decisions, newly-added construction land are occupied mostly by industrial land to improve local economic performance. With the purposes of avoiding inefficient land use and single land development mode in suburban district, the incentive mechanism of local government needs to be improved.