区域人口空间分布多尺度动态分析方法研究

Research on Methods and Characteristics of Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Spatial Distribution Patterns of Regional Population at Multiple Geographical Scales

为贯彻落实国家中部崛起计划、制定区域人口政策以及促进湖北省人口经济与资源环境相均衡等提供科学决策依据。在城市-城市群-省域多级尺度特征上,结合地统计方法、空间自相关分析、分段回归模型等,提出了一种区域人口空间分布格局多尺度动态模拟流程方法。利用此方法,在武汉市-武汉城市圈-湖北省3个尺度上,对湖北省1990~2010年人口空间分布结构进行了动态模拟实验分析。结果表明,20年来,武汉市人口持续向中心集聚,依旧处于城镇化早期阶段,且其人口格局被分割为两个不同的结构带;在3个地理尺度上,人口空间分布均有表现为明显的集聚特征,随地理尺度的扩大,人口密度梯度趋于平滑。

In order to provide scientific decision-making basis for the implementation of the rising strategy in central region, the formulation of regional population policies and the promotion of population economy and resource environment balance in Hubei Province, a method of dynamic simulation and evaluation of regional population spatial distribution pattern based on the analysis of population density patterns at multiple geographical scales of urban, urban agglomerations and provincial provinces is proposed. Geostatistical analysis method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, segmented regression model and other methods are used in the research. Based on this, the dynamic simulation of population structure in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2010 was carried out on three geographical scales of Wuhan-Wuhan Metropolitan Area-Hubei Province. The results show that Wuhan is still in the early stages of urbanization, and the population of which continued to gather towards the center, its population structure is divided into two different structural bands. Spatial distribution of population has showed significant agglomeration characteristics at all three geographical scales. Population density gradient tends to be smooth with the expansion of geographical scale.