伊拉克原油增产计划面临的问题和前景

Challenges and prospects for Iraq's oil production growth plan

2009年,伊拉克政府提出战后原油增产计划,要在2017年实现1200万桶/日的"峰值产量目标",后来该目标降低至800万桶/日。从实际效果看,伊拉克原油增产计划进展明显低于预期,2016年原油产量仅为447万桶/日。从发展现状看,伊拉克原油增产计划面临商务、技术、政治与地缘安全3个层面的诸多问题。商务层面的问题包括合同和营销政策等,技术层面的问题包括储运能力不足、基础配套较差、水资源缺乏以及钻井技术落后等,政治与地缘安全层面的问题主要包括政体效率较低、欧佩克减产政策影响以及地区局势动荡等。预计近中期,伊拉克原油增产计划仍难以实现目标,在极端情况下,库尔德问题可能对该国原油生产造成重大影响。中国的石油公司一是要合理选择在伊拉克的油气投资策略,二是要重视对资源国的投资风险评估,三是在低油价时期要从战略的高度谋划公司的未来发展。

In 2009, Iraq, after the war, proposed its new crude oil production growth plan, and the key feature was a 12 million b/d plateau production target（PPT） that was to be achieved by 2017. After a few years, the target reduced to 8 million b/d, but the crude oil production in 2016 was just 44.7 million b/d in which was significantly lower than expected. Iraq’s crude oil production plan faces many problems reflecting at the commerce, technology, politics and geopolitical risk. The commerce issues involves contracts and marketing policies; technology includes insufficient storage and transportation capacity, poor infrastructure, lack of water resources, and outdated drilling technology; and politics geopolitical risk have the problems such as the low efficiency of the government, the impact of OPEC’s output cuts, and the unrest in the region. It is not expected that Iraq’s oil production plan will meet its target in the near term. In extreme cases, the Kurdish problem could have a significant impact on the country’s crude production. As for Chinese oil companies investing Iraq’s upstream projects, they should rationally choose of oil and gas investment strategy in Iraq, emphasize the investment risk assessment of resource countries, and scheme the future development from strategic level under low oil prices.