美联储加息周期下原油价格走势分析

Oil price trend under the FED interest rate rising cycle

历史分析表明,美元作为原油的定价货币,其币值的波动(美元汇率波动)往往会成为原油进入上涨或下跌周期的导火索,并成为推动油价及原油市场格局变化的内在动力。2008年美国金融危机爆发后,美联储通过实施量化宽松政策,大量向市场注入美元流动性,成为油价上涨的关键因素。2014年之后,随着美联储逐步退出量化宽松政策并进入加息周期,油价呈现一波快速下跌行情。美联储将开始修复资产负债表,美元供应将持续收紧,这将对油价将形成较大的压力。目前美国尚处于经济复苏阶段,美元汇率在该阶段往往呈现弱势,进而导致石油输出国石油收入的实际购买力下降。对石油输出国而言,更大的挑战来自美国页岩油革命,页岩油成为了全球原油供应最大的边际变量。欧佩克产油国面临着低油价、市场份额被侵蚀以及自身话语权衰弱的冲击,可能会在未来展开更大范围的谈判,且不排除寻求新的原油价格锚定区间。

Historical analysis shows that the US dollar, as the pricing currency of crude oil, tends to be a trigger for oil’s rise or fall, as the value of its currency fluctuates, and become the intrinsic impetus to push crude oil price and market pattern changes. After U.S. financial crisis in 2008, through quantitative easing（QE）, the FED has pumped dollar liquidity into the market, making it a key driver of oil prices. After 2014, while the FED stepping out of QE and into a rate hike cycle, oil prices were on a rapid decline. The FED starts repairing its balance sheet and tightening the supply of dollars, which will put a lot of pressure on oil prices. At present, the US is still in the stage of economic recovery, and the dollar exchange rate, as usual, tends to be weak in this stage, which in turn leads to the decreasing purchasing power of oil revenue in oil exporting. The bigger challenge for oil exporters comes from the US shale oil revolution which has become the world’s largest marginal variable for crude oil supplies. Facing the impact of low oil prices, market share eroded, and the weak voice, OPEC may conduct a broader range of talks in the future and seek a new oil price anchoring range.