全球石油市场热点聚焦——“2017年亚太石油峰会”观点采撷

Spotlights of global oil market——Summary of Asian Pacific Petroleum Conference 2017

第33届亚太石油峰会达成以下主要观点:1)世界经济迎来全面复苏,对石油需求构成有力支撑;2)全球石油需求增长强劲,增长主力由汽油转向柴油;3)美国原油出口持续增长,亚太成为其重要的出口地区,全球原油贸易格局开始改变;4)供应方面,主流观点认为欧佩克减产协议有望延长至2018年年中,同时看好未来非常规石油的供应;5)2017年石油市场去库存取得实质性进展,但对2018年国际油价走势仍有分歧,主流观点认为会继续反弹;6)2017年WTI/布伦特原油价差再度拉宽,2018年宽价差局面仍将延续,并判断WTI的基准油地位会更加牢固;7)面对国际海事组织硫含量新规,船东将更多可能选择用低硫柴油调和高硫燃料油来满足要求,这将导致中长期内柴油、低硫燃料油价格相对更强,炼厂焦化装置的毛利更好。

The 33 rd Asian Pacific Petroleum Conference（APPEC） reached the following main points： the world economy is in a full recovery, which provides a strong support for oil demand; the world’s oil demand is growing strongly, with the bulk of the growth going from petrol to diesel; American crude oil exports have continued to grow with the Asia-Pacific as its important export area, and the global oil trade pattern has begun to change; from the mainstream view, OPEC’s Production Cut Agreement is expected to be extended to mid-2018, meanwhile, the future supply of unconventional oil is promising; destocking of oil market in 2017 has achieved substantive progress, but there are still differences over the direction of international oil prices in 2018, and the prevailing view is that it will continue to rebound; in 2017, WTI/Brent spreads are widening again, and the gap will continue widening in 2018, and the benchmark oil position of WTI will be stronger; ship-owners will be more likely to opt for low sulphur diesel and high sulphur fuel oil to meet the new regulation for sulphur content of IMO, which will lead to a relatively higher price for diesel and lowsulphur fuel oil in the medium to long term, and the gross profit of refinery coking unit will be better.