基于路段的路径行驶时间分布研究

Study on Route-level Travel Time Distribution Based on Segmentlevel Travel Time

行程时间可靠性是指通过一天中某一时间段的路径行程时间的一致性.这项研究为出行者提供最佳出发时间,使他们在最大可能性下准点到达目的地.本研究基于自动车辆识别技术收集数据,可直接获取道路网络的行驶时间数据,样本数据全面、充足.为了向出行者提供可靠的出行信息,数据的处理和分析可以通过直方图,PDF和CDF来展示行驶时间的分布情况.本研究基于路段行驶时间的分布,计算路径行驶时间的分布.考虑到复杂且难以直接获取路径行驶时间概率密度分布图,本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法从路段行驶时间分布产生可信的路径分布,并将模拟结果与检测到的实际数据进行比较,以验证方法的准确性和可靠性.

The travel time reliability refers to the consistency of the travel time through a path at a certain period of time in a day. This study provides travelers the best departure time that makes them more likely arrive at the destination on time. This study collected the data based on the Automatic Vehicle Identification Technology that can obtain the travel time data of the road network directly. And the advantage of this technology is that it can allow collecting rich and comprehensive data. To provide reliable travel information to travelers,processing and analyzing the data is to prepare distributions of the travel times that can be displayed in histograms,PDFs,and CDFs. This research studied how to produce the route-level travel time distribution based on the segment-level travel time. Considering the fact that it is complex and difficult to obtain the route travel time PDFs directly,this article employed the Monte Carlo simulation to produce a credible route-level distribution from the segment-level travel time. And the simulation results were compared to real data to verify the accuracy and reliability of the method.