军民航空域安全评估中的碰撞风险研究

On the safety assessment for the collision risk between the civilian and military airplanes

碰撞风险是空域安全评估的重要内容。为保证军民航的安全飞行,通过对民航Event模型碰撞风险的研究,构建了军航训练空域与民航航路的碰撞风险模型;根据军航飞机的飞行特点,建立了军航飞机侧向位置偏差概率模型;结合民航飞机的横向位置偏差概率模型重新计算Event模型中的碰撞盒穿越间隔片频率(GERh);选取某一战术动作对军民侧向碰撞风险进行仿真,确定其安全间隔;通过对飞行过程中各个关键点碰撞风险的研究,对空域的使用提出建议,并验证了理论的实用性。结果表明,当前10 km的安全间隔标准并不能符合规定的安全目标等级,至少需要再增加7 km的安全间隔才能使整个飞行过程均满足要求。

This paper is mainly aimed at making an assessment of the flying collision risks between the military and civilian flights by way of identifying and determinating the appropriate safety flying distance or interspace so as to heighten the safety flying rate and the efficiency of such air missions. For such safety purpose,the paper has proposed a collision risk avoiding model by setting the military training airspace and the civilian flight route based on the retrogressive examination of the past collision risk events. At the same time,we have also managed to establish a probability model of the lateral position deviation of the military aircraft according to the characteristic features of the military flight actual situation. What is more,we have also recalculated the frequency of the collision box traversing spacer（ GERh） in the event model by using the transverse position deviation probability model of the civil aviation. To prove the rationality of the aforementioned military and civilian flight safety interval standard,we have also recalculated the collision risk probabilities of the different distance intervals by choosing a tactical action to run the simulation model. Based on the recalculation results,we have proposed a few detailed suggestions on how to distribute the airspace according to the research results over the key points for avoiding the collision risks in the control of the flight process,which can provide some references to the more flexible command and share of the airspace. The results indicate that it wouldn＇t be enough to meet the safety demands for the current safety distance interval standard（ 10 km）. Rather,at least another 7 km is needed to meet the safety demands for the entire flying process. Therefore,another17 km is needed to be added as the safety distance interval as the maneuver airspace when the training airspace is predetermined.Therefore,according to the collision risk degree of each key point during the flight process,a starting point for maneuver has to be set up near one side of the air-route. Thus,it can be seen that,since the collision probability of the same direction flight should be less than that of the contrary direction flight,it is necessary for the airplanes to take the same direction to reduce the collision risk in the actual flying process.