俄罗斯能源利益集团博弈与中俄天然气关系演变

Russian Energy Interest Group Game and Evolution of Sino-Russian Gas Relations

对于探讨影响中俄天然气合作发展的深层原因而言,我们有必要关注全球天然气市场层面和地缘政治格局演变下俄罗斯天然气部门内部的利益集团博弈,特别是这些能源利益集团与克里姆林宫之间的错综复杂的关系对俄罗斯国内天然气部门管制和出口政策的直接影响。从利益集团博弈视角切入对中俄天然气关系演变的分析,亦将有助于判断和预测俄罗斯天然气市场自由化趋势及中俄天然气合作的发展前景,这对于推进目前丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟的战略对接,尤其是深化中俄油气领域的产能合作具有深远意义。

For probing into the deep reasons that influence the development of Sino-Russian gas cooperation, it is necessary to pay attention to the game of interest groups within Russia's natural gas sector in the context of the evolution of global gas market and geopolitical patterns. In particular, the intricate relationship between these energy interest groups and the Kremlin has a direct impact on Russia's domestic gas sector regulation and export policy. An analysis of the evolution of Sino-Russian gas relations from the perspective of energy interest group game will also help to judge and predict the trend of Russian gas market liberalization and the prospect of Sino-Russian gas cooperation. This is of far-reaching significance in advancing the strategic docking of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union, especially the deepening of the production cooperation between China and Russia in oil and gas fields.