长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN CHANGE OF INBOUND TOURISM ECONOMIC IN YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT: BASED ON ESDA & GWR

以5 a为时间间隔,运用ESDA法采用旅游外汇收入平均增长量和平均增长率指标,研究长江经济带126个市域单元2000~2015年入境旅游经济的空间格局演化特征,运用GWR法分析入境旅游经济影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明:(1)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长量莫兰指数经历了0.164 6~0.164 1~0.057 2的变化趋势,增量相似市域由较强集聚向较弱集聚转化,市域旅游经济增长趋于均衡。一级热点区始终位于江浙沿海市域。一级冷点区由研究区中部向苏北转移,空间范围大大缩小。(2)长江经济带旅游外汇收入平均增长率莫兰指数表现为0.098 6~0.293 1~0.198 9的变化趋势,市域之间旅游经济增长关联程度增强,总体差异逐渐缩小。一级冷热点区大幅度转移,同时热点区范围大幅度扩大。后期热点市域数量大大超过冷点市域数量。(3)入境旅游发展较为落后的湖南省、云南省增长速度最快,长三角城市群所属市域始终是入境旅游经济增长最活跃的地区。

Taking 5 years as interval, this paper uses the average growth quantity and rate of foreign exchange earnings from tourism, applying the ESDA method, to study the spatial evolution characteristics of inbound tourism economic in 126 city-regions of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2015. Moreover, the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors of inbound tourism economic is examined by the GWR method. The results show that ： （ 1 ） Global Moran＇ s Index of tourism foreign exchange income＇ s average growth quantity in Yangtze River Economic Belt has experienced the changes from 0. 164 6 to 0. 164 1, then to 0. 057 2. The agglomeration of the city-regions that share the similar increment becomes reduced. The increase of regional tourism economic tends to balance. The hottest area is always located in coastal regions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, while the coldest area that was situated in middle region moves to the north of Jiangsu, narrowing the space. （2） Global Moran＇ s Index of tourism foreign exchange income＇ s average growth rates of Yangtze River Economic Belt has experienced the changes from 0. 098 6 to 0. 293 1, then to 0. 198 9. The correlation of tourism economic growth among city-regions is increased. And the global difference is gradually narrowing. Both coldest and hottest areas are significant changed, with the space of hot area is remarkably expanded. Finally, the number of city-regions in hot area is much more than that in cold area. （ 3 ） The growing speed of Hunan and Yunnan provinces which are used to be the most underdeveloped region is the most highest. The city-regions in Yangtze River Delta city group have always been the most active areas of inbound tourism economic growth.