长三角城市群建设用地扩张地区差异的驱动因素解释——基于回归方程的Shapley值分解方法

EXPLANATION TO THE DRIVING FACTORS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION LAND EXPANSION'S REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA URBAN AGGLOMERATION——BASED ON THE SHAPLEY VALUE DECOMPOSITION METHOD OF THE REGRESSION EQUATION

工业化、城镇化所带来的建设用地过度扩张已成为土地资源领域研究的热点问题。利用基于半对数回归方程的Shapley值分解方法考察了2006~2015年长三角城市群26个城市建设用地扩张的驱动因素及其对地区差异的贡献率。研究表明:(1)耕地保留量、产业结构调整、建设用地利用效率、生态压力等因素对建设用地扩张具有负向驱动作用,经济发展速度、人口城镇化速度、政府财政赤字、政府政策执行力等因素对建设用地扩张具有正向驱动作用,但耕地保有量、生态压力两个因素对建设用地扩张影响不显著;(2)政府财政赤字、建设用地利用效率、政府政策执行力等3个因素对建设用地扩张地区差异的贡献率最大。为此,应从资源约束、生态压力、促进产业结构调整、实施土地供给侧结构性改革、提高土地效率等多方面入手以破解建设用地过度扩张的困局。

Excessive expansion of the construction land caused by industrialization and urbanization has been a hot issue of the land resources research. In this study,based on Shapley value decomposition method of the semilogarithm regression equation,we investigate the driving factors of construction land expansion of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,which is based on Shapley value decomposition method of the semilogarithm regression equation. In the meanwhile,we investigate their contribution rate to the regional differences.The sample data range from 2006 to 2015. The results showed that：（ 1） these factors,which include the amount of reserved cultivated land,the adjustment of the industrial structure,the utilization efficiency of the construction land and the ecological pressure,etc.,have a negative driving effect on the construction land expansion. In contrast,the factors,including the speed of economic development,the speed of population urbanization,the deficit and the government＇s policy execution,etc.,have a positive driving effect. However,the driving effects of the amount of reserved cultivated land and the ecological pressure on the construction land expansion are not significant.（ 2） the driving effect of the following factors on the regional differences of the construction land expansion are significant,which include the utilization efficiency of the construction land,the deficit and the government＇s policy execution,etc. Therefore,in order to slow down the excessive expansion of the construction land,strategies such as resource constraint,ecological protection,the promotion of the adjustment of industrial structure,the implementation of the structural reform of land supply side, and the enhancement of the construction land efficiency,etc.,should be taken into consideration.