基于ARIMA模型的福建省能源消费总量预测分析

Forecast and Analyses of Total Energy Consumption in Fujian Province Based on ARIMA Model

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的物质基础,在国民经济中具有特别重要的战略地位,经济发展导致能源需求增加,对能源消费总量研究,有利于发展低碳经济。根据1978-2014年福建省能源消费总量数据,建立了福建省能源消费总量的ARIMA模型。通过对该模型的残差检验,显示该模型的拟合效果较好,适用于预测福建省能源消费总量。利用该模型预测了2015-2020年福建省能源消费总量,得出在"十三五"规划时期,福建省能源消费总量还将以较快的速度增长。

As the material basis of human society's survival and development,energy has an important strategic position in the national economy. The economic development leads to the increase of energy demand,and the study of total energy consumption is beneficial to the development of low-carbon economy. The ARIMA model is established to analyze Fujian Province's total energy consumption from 1978 to 2014. The residual testing shows that model is efficient,and it is applicable in forecasting on total energy consumption in Fujian province. Then the prediction is conducted on the total energy consumption from 2015 to 2020 in Fujian province,and the results show that the growth rate of the total energy consumption will increase more quickly during the'13 th Five Planning'.