产业专业化、多样化与产业增长关系研究——基于陕西省32个行业面板数据

A Study on the Relationships among the Specialization,Diversification and Industrial Growth:Based on the Panel Data of 32 Industries in Shaanxi Province

在国家实施产业结构调整的背景下,讨论Mar外部性和Jac外部性对产业发展的不同作用,探讨在实施产业专业化、多样化与产业增长之间的关系,寻找陕西产业发展思路。利用陕西省32个行业的面板数据,以一阶差分广义矩估计的方法构建动态面板模型,分析陕西省产业专业化程度和产业多样性对陕西产业发展的影响。研究发现:陕西省产业中的Mar外部性和Jac外部性对产业产出均有较强的影响,但作用方式有所不同,Mar外部性对产业当期产出有较显著的正向作用,滞后一期对产业产出有较显著的负向作用;Jac外部性对产业当期产出有显著的负向作用,滞后一期对产业产出有显著的正向作用;产业产出与前期产业产出存在显著的正向关系,产业产出与劳动力的当期值有正相关,产业产出与资本及资本滞后一期显著正相关,经济环境对陕西产业产出影响显著。

This paper discusses the difference influences of Marshallian Externality and Jacobs Externality to the industrial growth,analyzes the relationship among specialization,diversification and industrial growth under the background of industrial restructuring in China,searches the development thinking of Shaanxi industry,uses the panel data of 32 industries in Shaanxi to construct the dynamic panel econometric model by first order difference of generalized moment estimation and analyses the industrial influences caused by industrial specialization and industrial diversity in Shaanxi.The results show that the influences of Marshallian Externality and Jacobs Externality are statistically significant,but two different strategies produce the different ways to the growth of industries.Marshallian Externality has a significant positive effect to the production of industries in current time and a significant negative effect to production of industries in the first-lag time;Jacobs Externality has a significant negative effect to the production of industries in current time and a significant positive effect to production of industries in the first-lag time.At the same time,the results also show that the production of industries have significant positive relation to the first-earlier stage,the industrial production has positive relation to the number of labor,the industrial production has significant positive relation to the capital asset and its first-lag,and the economic environment in different stages influences the industrial production.