城镇化背景下江苏省区域碳排放的影响因素研究

Study on Impact Factors of Regional Carbon Emissions Under Background of Urbanization in Jiangsu Province

城镇化与碳排放问题关系到我国人口、经济与资源的协调发展。从衡量城镇化的影响因素出发,研究了城镇化对江苏省及各区域碳排放的影响,利用STIRPAT模型与面板数据广义最小二乘法(GLS)计算分析了城镇化进程中人口城镇化、产业城镇化、土地城镇化、研发强度、能源消费结构、FDI等因素对江苏省及苏南、苏中、苏北的影响程度。结果发现,人口城镇化、产业城镇化、研发强度、能源消费结构、FDI与城镇碳排放呈正相关关系,土地城镇化与城镇碳排放呈负相关关系,产业城镇化是影响江苏省及各区域的最主要因素,不同地区不同因素对碳排放的影响程度也存在差异,据此提出城镇化背景下江苏省碳减排的对策。

Relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions concerned development of population,economy and resource in China. This paper studied the effects on carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province and all regions caused by the urbanization based on the analysis of impact factors. STIRPAT modelling and GLS method were conducted to analyze and explore the impact factors among Jiangsu,Southern Jiangsu,Central Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu such as population urbanization,industrial urbanization,land urbanization,intensity of research and development( R&D),energy consumption structure and FDI in the process of urbanization. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between urban carbon emissions and impact factors including population urbanization,industrial urbanization,energy consumption structure,intensity of R&D and FDI,while land urbanization had a negative correlation. Industrial urbanization was the most important factor affecting Jiangsu Province and regions,the influence degree of carbon emissions varied because of various regions and factors. As a result,the proper development countermeasures for Jiangsu's carbon reduction were put forward.