基于TOPSIS的大理州旅游经济系统脆弱性评价研究

Study on Tourism Economic System's Vulnerability Assessment of Dali Prefecture Based on TOPSIS

基于旅游经济系统脆弱性的内涵,从敏感性、应对能力两个方面构建旅游经济系统脆弱性评价体系。以云南大理州为例,选取熵值法、TOPSIS模型、障碍度评估模型,分析2007—2016年大理州旅游经济系统脆弱性变化情况及影响因素。结果表明:(1)10年来,大理州旅游经济系统敏感性和应对能力均呈波动上升趋势,脆弱性波动上升但相对平缓;(2)大理州旅游经济系统脆弱性波动相对平缓,但一直处于较高水平;(3)通过障碍因素分析得出,入境旅游人次占总人次的比重、旅游外汇收入占总收入的比重和国民经济增长率三项指标是阻碍大理州旅游经济脆弱性降低的最大因素。最后提出降低大理州旅游经济系统脆弱性的建议。

Based on the connotation of the vulnerability of tourism economic system,as well as the evaluation index system of tourism economic system vulnerability was constructed from the two aspects of sensitivity and coping ability. In terms of index weight,selected the method of entropy,because this method was very objective. At the same time,this paper adopted the TOPSIS model to evaluate the tourism economic system vulnerability. This paper took Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture as the research object,as well as based on 10 years data from^2007 to 2016,analyzed the ten years' change of Dali Prefecture tourism economic system vulnerability and the main influencing factors. The result showed that: On the one hand,from 2007 to 2016,the coping ability of Dali' s tourism economic system fluctuated upward,sensitivity fluctuated upward trend,and the vulnerability fluctuations rose but relatively gently. On the other hand,although Dali's tourism economic system was relatively smooth,its tourism economic system was at a high level,2011 and 2013 for the low vulnerability period,2009,2010 and 2012 for the moderate vulnerability period,2007 and 2014 to 2016 for the higher vulnerability period,2008 was a highly vulnerability period.And finally,through the analysis of obstacle factors found that the biggest three factors hindering the decline of the tourism economic system's vulnerability of Dali prefecture were the proportion of inbound tourists in total tourist arrivals,the proportion of foreign exchange revenue in tourism to total tourism revenue and the national economic growth rate. At last,on the basis of analysing the results systematically,some suggestions were put forward to reduce the vulnerability of Dali's tourism economic system.