影子银行利率提高了我国地方政府债务风险吗?——基于省际面板数据模型

Does the Shadow Banking Interest Rates Raise the Risk of Local Government Debt?—A Study Based on the Inter-provincial Panel Data

通过灰色聚类分析模型和面板数据模型检测近年来我国各省份债务风险及预警等级,实证分析影子银行利率对地方政府债务风险的线性和非线性影响而作出的研究表明:全国地方政府债务风险总体可控;影子银行利率提高显著增加了地方政府债务风险;人均GDP、债务比率、财政分权程度和晋升激励强度增加了地方政府债务风险;经济增长水平提高、财政分权程度提高、晋升激励强度提高、影子银行利率变动对地方政府债务风险的影响程度提高。预警模型预测各省份的风险预警等级具有较高的准确率,实证检验结果稳健性较好。

In this paper, we calculate the debt risk and early warning level of various provinces in China by using grey number clustering model. At the same time, we estimate the shadow banking interest rate,which is associated with local government debt. The impact of shadow banking interest rate on the risk of local government debt is investigated by using the fixed effect panel data model. Our research shows that the risk of national local government debt is controllable and that the rise of shadow banking interest rate significantly increases the risk of local government debt. The rising level of economic growth, the increase of fiscal decentralization, the promotion of incentive intensity, and the variation of shadow banking interest rates significantly affect the risk of local government debt. We find that the early warning model can accurately predict the early warning risk level of each province. Considering the endogenous problem and the selection of the shadow banking interest rate variables, the empirical results are still robust.